2006 House · OH-12
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 51%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.70% · Republican 57.30%
R+14.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 42.698 − 57.302 = -14.604
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-14.604) = 9.605
- Absolute miss = |9.605| = 9.605
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64243, race ID 3904 (538 database).