2006 House · OH-1
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 999 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.75% · Republican 52.25%
R+4.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 47.751 − 52.249 = -4.498
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-4.498) = 6.497
- Absolute miss = |6.497| = 6.497
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64243, race ID 3893 (538 database).