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2006 House · NY-25

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,020 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.26% · Republican 40.12%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.259 − 40.116 = 4.143
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (4.143) = 4.857
  4. Absolute miss = |4.857| = 4.857

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64241, race ID 3874 (538 database).