2006 House · NY-19
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 944 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.79% · Republican 37.97%
D+9.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 47.792 − 37.971 = 9.821
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (9.821) = -7.821
- Absolute miss = |-7.821| = 7.821
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64241, race ID 3868 (538 database).