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2006 House · NH-2

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 988 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.71% · Republican 45.61%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.713 − 45.609 = 7.104
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (7.104) = -4.104
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.104| = 4.104

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64239, race ID 3833 (538 database).