2006 House · MN-6
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,056 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.07% · Republican 50.05%
R+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 42.074 − 50.051 = -7.977
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.977) = 6.976
- Absolute miss = |6.976| = 6.976
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64237, race ID 3809 (538 database).