2006 House · MN-1
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,042 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 50%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.74% · Republican 47.12%
D+5.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 52.737 − 47.122 = 5.615
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (5.615) = -8.614
- Absolute miss = |-8.614| = 8.614
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64237, race ID 3804 (538 database).