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2006 House · IN-9

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,023 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 45.49%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.013 − 45.492 = 4.521
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.521) = 3.479
  4. Absolute miss = |3.479| = 3.479

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64235, race ID 3745 (538 database).