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2006 House · IN-8

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,065 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.02% · Republican 38.98%

D+22.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.018 − 38.982 = 22.036
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (22.036) = -12.035
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.035| = 12.035

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64235, race ID 3744 (538 database).