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2006 House · IN-2

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 977 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.98% · Republican 46.02%

D+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.977 − 46.023 = 7.954
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (7.954) = -4.954
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.954| = 4.954

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64235, race ID 3738 (538 database).