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2006 House · IL-8

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,013 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.90% · Republican 44.02%

D+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.904 − 44.015 = 6.889
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.889) = -1.890
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.890| = 1.890

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64234, race ID 3725 (538 database).