2006 House · IL-6
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 990 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.65% · Republican 51.35%
R+2.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 48.648 − 51.351 = -2.703
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-2.703) = 3.703
- Absolute miss = |3.703| = 3.703
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64234, race ID 3723 (538 database).