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2006 House · CT-5

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 994 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.46% · Republican 43.54%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.464 − 43.536 = 12.928
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (12.928) = -4.927
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.927| = 4.927

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64232, race ID 3674 (538 database).