2006 House · CO-7
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 983 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.93% · Republican 42.06%
D+12.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 54.933 − 42.063 = 12.870
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (12.870) = -7.870
- Absolute miss = |-7.870| = 7.870
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64231, race ID 3669 (538 database).