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2006 House · CO-4

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 991 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.12% · Republican 45.60%

R+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.118 − 45.605 = -2.487
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-2.487) = 5.487
  4. Absolute miss = |5.487| = 5.487

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64231, race ID 3666 (538 database).