2006 House · AZ-1
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,037 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 48%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.45% · Republican 51.75%
R+8.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 43.446 − 51.752 = -8.306
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-8.306) = 6.306
- Absolute miss = |6.306| = 6.306
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64229, race ID 3598 (538 database).