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1998 House · NH-2

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 183 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 53%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.77% · Republican 53.16%

R+8.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 53 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.773 − 53.157 = -8.384
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-8.384) = -6.616
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.616| = 6.616

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64225, race ID 2085 (538 database).