2000 President · LA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 624 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 52%
R+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.88% · Republican 52.55%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
- Actual margin = 44.875 − 52.551 = -7.676
- Signed miss = -13.00 − (-7.676) = -5.324
- Absolute miss = |-5.324| = 5.324
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6422, race ID 824 (538 database).