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2000 President · IL

Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 899 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 35%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.60% · Republican 42.59%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 35 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.597 − 42.585 = 12.012
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (12.012) = -2.012
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.012| = 2.012

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6421, race ID 820 (538 database).