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2012 House · AZ-8

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-06-09 (3 days before the election) · 2,012 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.32% · Republican 45.39%

D+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.322 − 45.387 = 6.935
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (6.935) = 5.065
  4. Absolute miss = |5.065| = 5.065

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64190, race ID 1788 (538 database).