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2011 House · NY-26

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2011-05-21 (3 days before the election) · 1,106 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 36%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.68% · Republican 32.08%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 36 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.680 − 32.083 = 10.597
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (10.597) = -4.597
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.597| = 4.597

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64186, race ID 1793 (538 database).