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2009 House · NY-23

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2009-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 1,754 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 13%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.97% · Republican 4.80%

D+39.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 13 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.965 − 4.796 = 39.169
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (39.169) = -18.169
  4. Absolute miss = |-18.169| = 18.169

The poll overstated the Republican by 18.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64183, race ID 1800 (538 database).