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2002 House · AR-4

Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 38%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.56% · Republican 39.44%

D+21.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 38 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.562 − 39.438 = 21.124
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (21.124) = -6.125
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.125| = 6.125

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64168, race ID 2736 (538 database).