2008 House · NJ-7
National Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 40%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.22% · Republican 50.22%
R+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 40 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 42.221 − 50.219 = -7.998
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-7.998) = -1.002
- Absolute miss = |-1.002| = 1.002
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64159, race ID 4275 (538 database).