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2000 House · MO-2

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 350 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 39%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.42% · Republican 55.33%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 39 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.421 − 55.333 = -12.912
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-12.912) = 10.912
  4. Absolute miss = |10.912| = 10.912

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64152, race ID 2505 (538 database).