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2010 House · WA-2

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 423 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 38%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 48.93%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 38 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.072 − 48.928 = 2.144
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (2.144) = 15.855
  4. Absolute miss = |15.855| = 15.855

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64147, race ID 4876 (538 database).