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2010 House · HI-1

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-05-06 (16 days before the election) · 1,081 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 25.5% · Republican 39.5%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.99% · Republican 39.68%

R+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25.5 − 39.5 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.988 − 39.679 = -8.691
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-8.691) = -5.310
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.310| = 5.310

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64146, race ID 1797 (538 database).