2008 House · GA-8
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 31%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.24% · Republican 42.76%
D+14.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 31 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 57.244 − 42.756 = 14.488
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (14.488) = 2.513
- Absolute miss = |2.513| = 2.513
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64145, race ID 4144 (538 database).