2006 House · UT-3
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 209 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 55%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.24% · Republican 57.71%
R+25.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 55 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 32.243 − 57.712 = -25.469
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-25.469) = 2.469
- Absolute miss = |2.469| = 2.469
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64131, race ID 3992 (538 database).