2006 House · UT-1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 209 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 58%
R+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.45% · Republican 63.06%
R+30.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 58 = -32.00
- Actual margin = 32.454 − 63.060 = -30.606
- Signed miss = -32.00 − (-30.606) = -1.394
- Absolute miss = |-1.394| = 1.394
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64131, race ID 3990 (538 database).