2000 House · AR-4
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 417 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 44%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.97% · Republican 49.03%
D+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 44 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 50.972 − 49.028 = 1.944
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (1.944) = -4.945
- Absolute miss = |-4.945| = 4.945
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64127, race ID 2299 (538 database).