2000 House · FL-8
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 426 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 39%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 50.79%
R+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 39 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 49.188 − 50.793 = -1.605
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.605) = 6.605
- Absolute miss = |6.605| = 6.605
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64125, race ID 2372 (538 database).