1998 House · CA-46
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 1998-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 34%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.43% · Republican 39.28%
D+17.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 34 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 56.427 − 39.279 = 17.148
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (17.148) = -3.148
- Absolute miss = |-3.148| = 3.148
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64109, race ID 1910 (538 database).