2006 House · CT-2
Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 42%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.02% · Republican 49.98%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 50.017 − 49.983 = 0.034
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.034) = 3.966
- Absolute miss = |3.966| = 3.966
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64075, race ID 3671 (538 database).