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2006 House · NY-20

Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.51% · Republican 37.59%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.510 − 37.592 = 8.918
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (8.918) = -5.918
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.918| = 5.918

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64072, race ID 3869 (538 database).