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2000 President · WI

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 42%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.220) = 0.780
  4. Absolute miss = |0.780| = 0.780

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6407, race ID 854 (538 database).