2008 House · OH-15
GQR · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 36%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.94% · Republican 45.18%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 36 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 45.940 − 45.179 = 0.761
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (0.761) = 7.239
- Absolute miss = |7.239| = 7.239
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64068, race ID 4342 (538 database).