2008 House · FL-24
GQR · fieldwork ended 2008-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 35%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.11%
D+16.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 35 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 57.201 − 41.114 = 16.087
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (16.087) = 6.913
- Absolute miss = |6.913| = 6.913
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64067, race ID 4135 (538 database).