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2000 President · PA

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.44%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.608 − 46.438 = 4.170
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.170) = 0.830
  4. Absolute miss = |0.830| = 0.830

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6406, race ID 844 (538 database).