2004 House · PA-13
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 454 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 35%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.74% · Republican 41.28%
D+14.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 35 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 55.745 − 41.284 = 14.461
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (14.461) = 3.539
- Absolute miss = |3.539| = 3.539
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64045, race ID 3497 (538 database).