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2000 Senate · FL

CBS News/The New York Times · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 514 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 36%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 36 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (4.852) = 4.149
  4. Absolute miss = |4.149| = 4.149

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6403, race ID 1687 (538 database).