2008 House · UT-2
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 445 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 65% · Republican 26%
D+39.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.35% · Republican 34.47%
D+28.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 65 − 26 = 39.00
- Actual margin = 63.351 − 34.474 = 28.877
- Signed miss = 39.00 − (28.877) = 10.124
- Absolute miss = |10.124| = 10.124
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64014, race ID 4426 (538 database).