2006 House · UT-3
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 386 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 27% · Republican 56%
R+29.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.24% · Republican 57.71%
R+25.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 27 − 56 = -29.00
- Actual margin = 32.243 − 57.712 = -25.469
- Signed miss = -29.00 − (-25.469) = -3.531
- Absolute miss = |-3.531| = 3.531
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64013, race ID 3992 (538 database).