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2010 House · NC-8

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 1,785 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41.4% · Republican 39.3%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 53.02% · Republican 43.67%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.4 − 39.3 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 53.019 − 43.674 = 9.345
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (9.345) = -7.245
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.245| = 7.245

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63997, race ID 4756 (538 database).