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2010 House · NC-7

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 2,477 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 40.7%

D+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.68% · Republican 46.32%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 40.7 = 2.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.681 − 46.319 = 7.362
  3. Signed miss = 2.80 − (7.362) = -4.562
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.562| = 4.562

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63997, race ID 4755 (538 database).