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2010 House · NC-2

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 2,218 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 31.5% · Republican 49.5%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.69% · Republican 49.47%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31.5 − 49.5 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.686 − 49.467 = -0.781
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-0.781) = -17.219
  4. Absolute miss = |-17.219| = 17.219

The poll overstated the Republican by 17.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63997, race ID 4750 (538 database).