2009 Governor · VA
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2009-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 569 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 55%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.26% · Republican 58.62%
R+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 41.255 − 58.619 = -17.364
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-17.364) = 1.364
- Absolute miss = |1.364| = 1.364
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63978, race ID 1312 (538 database).