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2013 Governor · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2013-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 1,388 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 61%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.19% · Republican 60.30%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 61 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.191 − 60.302 = -22.111
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-22.111) = -5.889
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.889| = 5.889

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63969, race ID 1256 (538 database).