Skip to content

2013 Governor · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2013-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 1,203 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 64%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.19% · Republican 60.30%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 64 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.191 − 60.302 = -22.111
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-22.111) = -10.889
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.889| = 10.889

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63968, race ID 1256 (538 database).