Skip to content

2005 Governor · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2005-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 636 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.02%

D+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.472 − 43.023 = 10.449
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (10.449) = 1.552
  4. Absolute miss = |1.552| = 1.552

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63964, race ID 1363 (538 database).